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Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of influenza epidemic in Hubei from 2009 to 2020, and make short-term prediction to provide reference for influenza prevention and control strategies. Methods Time series seasonal decomposition model and geographic spatial analysis method were used to analyze spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of influenza prevalence in Hubei during 2009-2020. LSTM neural network model was used to predict the monthly influenza incidence from 2020 to 2023. Results Influenza was mainly prevalent in the end of winter and the beginning of spring (December to March) were periods of high influenza incidence. In recent years, the influenza pandemic has shown an increasing trend. Influenza epidemic was characterized by significant spatial differentiation, with “A-shaped point-axis structure” surrounding counties were more severe . The epidemic center of gravity experienced a spatial evolution process from west to east and from north to south. LSTM neural network model predicted that although the influenza incidence rate from January 2020 to December 2023 is lower than that in 2019, it is still at a high level, and shows a peak epidemic in winter and spring. Conclusion Influenza epidemic in Hubei is characterized by a high epidemic period in late winter and early spring, and the southeast of Hubei is the key epidemic area. It is suggested that publicity and prevention and control should be strengthened according to people, time and place, and key populations and areas should be encouraged to receive influenza vaccines in advance.
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OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, to provide insights into precision control of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province.@*METHODS@#O. hupensis snail distribution data were collected in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 and descriptively analyzed, including actual area of snail habitats, area of emerging snail habitats and area of Schistosoma japonicum-infected snails. The actual area of snail habitats and area of emerging snail habitats were subjected to spatial autocorrelation analysis, hotspot analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and space-time scanning analysis, and the clusters of snail distribution and settings at high risk of snail spread were identified in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020.@*RESULTS@#The actual area of snail habitats gradually decreased in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020. The actual area of snail habitats were 26 238.85 hm2 in Anhui Province in 2020, which were mainly distributed in marshland and lake regions. There was a large fluctuation in the area of emerging snail habitats in Anhui Province during the period from 2011 to 2020, with the largest area seen in 2016 (1 287.65 hm2), and 1.96 hm2 emerging infected snail habitats were detected in Guichi District, Chizhou City in 2020. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analyses showed spatial clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020 (Z = 3.00 to 3.43, all P values < 0.01), and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in the marshland and lake regions and distributed along the south side of the Yangtze River, while the cold spots were mainly concentrated in the mountainous regions of southern Anhui Province. There were no overall spatial clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats (Z = -2.20 to 1.71, all P values > 0.05), and a scattered distribution was found in local regions. Standard deviation ellipse analysis showed relatively stable distributions of the actual areas of snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which was consistent with the flow direction of the Yangtze River, and the focus of the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats shifted from the lower reaches to upper reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River. Space-time scanning analysis identified two high-value clusters in the distribution of actual areas of snail habitats in lower and middle reaches of Anhui section of the Yangtze River from 2011 to 2020, and two high-value clusters in the distribution of areas of emerging snail habitats were identified in mountainous and hilly regions.@*CONCLUSIONS@#There were spatial clusters in the distribution of O. hupensis snails in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020, which appeared a tendency of aggregation towards the south side and upper reaches of the Yangtze River; however, the spread of O. hupensis snails could not be neglected in mountainous and hilly regions. Monitoring of emerging snail habitats should be reinforced in mountainous and hilly regions and along the Yangtze River basin.
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Animals , China/epidemiology , Ecosystem , Gastropoda , Lakes , Rivers , Schistosoma japonicumABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of reported schistosomiasis cases in China from 2004 to 2017, so as to provide insights into the development of different schistosomiasis control strategies at various stages. Methods The monthly data of reported schistosomiasis cases at a provincial level of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the Public Health Science Data Center, and the spatial-temporal distribution of reported schistosomiasis cases was preliminarily identified using a descriptive statistical method. According to the goals at different stages proposed by the National Mid- and Long-term Program for Schistosomiasis Prevention and Control in China (2004—2015), a Bayesian interrupted time-series model was established to analyze the provincial reported incidence, time trend and seasonal variations of schistosomiasis in China at different stages. Results The reported schistosomiasis cases were mainly concentrated in 5 provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan and 2 provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan in China from 2004 to 2017, and the number of reported cases in endemic areas decreased gradually. The incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases predominantly peaked during the period from May to September in the marshland and lake regions, while no regular seasonality was seen in hilly regions. Bayesian interrupted time-series analysis showed the peak incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases in 4 provinces of Anhui, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi between May and September and in Jiangsu Province from July to November; however, no regular seasonal cycle was identified in hilly regions. The number of reported schistosomiasis cases showed a tendency towards an increase in 2 provinces of Hubei and Hunan from 2008 to 2014, with a minor peak during the period between March and April, and since 2015, the seasonality was not remarkable any longer in 3 provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu and Jiangxi with a decline in the incidence of reported schistosomiasis cases, while the seasonality remained in Hubei Province. Conclusions The spatial-temporal characteristics of schistosomiasis in China, notably seasonality, vary at different control stages. Bayesian interrupted time-series model is effective to identify the spatial-temporal changes of schistosomiasis, and the schistosomiasis control strategy may be adjusted according to the spatial-temporal changes to improve the schistosomiasis control efficiency.
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BACKGROUND@#This study aimed to describe the changing distribution of human brucellosis between 2004 and 2017 in mainland China and seek scientific evidence of the relationship between socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors and human brucellosis incidence.@*METHODS@#The annual numbers of brucellosis cases and incidence rates from 31 provinces in mainland China between 2004 and 2017 were obtained from the Data-Center for China Public Health Science. The number of monthly brucellosis cases in 2018 was obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The electronic map of the People's Republic of China was downloaded from the National Earth System Science Data Sharing Platform. Human population density, gross domestic product (GDP), and an inventory of cattle and sheep at the end of each year from 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual rainfall data from 31 provinces in the People's Republic of China from 2004 to 2017 were collected from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. The risk distribution and changing trends of human brucellosis were mapped with ArcGIS. A cluster analysis was employed to identify geographical areas and periods with statistically significant incidence rates. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine possible factors that were significantly correlated with the presence of human brucellosis cases.@*RESULTS@#Human brucellosis cases have spread throughout the whole country. Human brucellosis cases occurred mostly from March to August and were concentrated from April to July. The inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly correlated with the presence of brucellosis cases in mainland China.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The geographical expansion of human brucellosis in mainland China was observed, so did the high-incidence clusters between 2004 and 2017. Most of the cases were reported during the early spring to early summer (February-August). Results from the multivariate linear regression suggested that the inventory of sheep, GDP, and climate were significantly associated with the incidence of human brucellosis in mainland China.
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Objective To investigate the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of varicella outbreak in Jiading District in Shanghai from 2015 to 2018. Methods Varicella epidemic report data was collected from the national system of disease control and prevention and analyzed by spatial-temporal scanning statistic methods. Results There were 5 889 varicella cases reported from the year 2015 to 2018, and the annual average incidence rate was 91.68 per 100 000.The incidence rate for children below 3 years old was found to be the highest, reaching 621.45 per 100 000, which was significantly higher than that for the group of 18 years old and above (χ2=16 616.788, P < 0.001).There were 5.41% and 5.31% of the cases in September and February, respectively, which were lower than other months, and the peak incidence occurred in December and November, accounting for 13.41% and 11.95%, respectively.The highest and lowest incidence rates were 151.80 per 100 000 occurring in central urban area and 59.89 per 100 000 in rural area, respectively.The spatial-temporal scanning showed that the low population density area had a wide cluster range and a low effect value.The high population density area has small cluster range and high effect value. Conclusion The incidence of vanicella presents a trend of population, seasonal and regional clustering.Therefore, targeted measure should be taken to prevent varicella in focus population.
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To grasp the status of Oncomelania hupensis snail-infested environments in schistosomiasis endemic areas of Jiangxi Province, and establish the spatial database of snail-infested environments with the administrative village as the unit.The spatial and temporal distributions of the historical snail environments, existing snail environments, and suspicious snail-infested environments were analyzed by the historical data review and field investigations.The distribution of snail-infested environments in Jiangxi Province included two popular types of lakeshore and hills. The O. hupensis snail-infested environments were mainly concentrated in the Poyang Lake area, which accounting for 66.97% of the total snail-infested areas. The potential snail-infested environment area was 204 745.48 hm2, among which the potential snail-infested environment areas in the lakeshore and hills were 146 548.58 hm2 and 58 196.90 hm2, accounting for 71.58% and 28.42%, respectively. The real existing snail area was 83 234.50 hm2, among which the real existing snail areas in the lakeshore and hills were 80 890.81 hm2 and 2 343.69 hm2, accounting for 97.18% and 2.82%, respectively. The compressed snail area was 114 253.30 hm2 with a compression rate of 57.85%, of which the compression rates in the lakeshore and hills were 46.51% and 94.97%, respectively. In the four types of snail-infested environments, the areas of Type I, Type II, Type III and Type IV accounted for 55.77%, 25.75%, 13.91% and 4.57% of the total area, respectively.The spatial database of O. hupensis snail-infested environments is established comprehensively and systematically, that will be conducive to tracking and performing the dynamic updates of the data of snails, so as to provide an important technical support for investigation and monitoring in the future.
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Objective To understand the epidemiologic characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of hepatitis E in Shanghai between 2006 and 2016.Methods The reported incidence of hepatitis E and health facilities' information between 2006 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The geographic information were from Shanghai Surveying and Mapping Institute.The map scale was 1 ∶ 750 000.Global and local autocorrelation,and spatial-temporal detection methods were applied to determine the spatial-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E.Software ArcGIS 10.1 was used to analyze global and local spatial auto correlation of hepatitis E spatial clusters.Software SaTScan 9.4.4 was used to conduct scan for exploring the areas of hepatitis E temporal spatial clusters.Results A total of 6 048 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Shanghai during 2006-2016.The average incidence was 2.14/100 000.Spatial auto correlation analysis indicated that there was significant spatial positive correlations and spatial-temporal clustering of hepatitis E in Shanghai,and the "high-high cluster" was mainly located in the downtown of the city.Conclusion Understanding the spatial-temporal clustering areas of hepatitis E cases in Shanghai from 2006 to 2016 is important to the reasonable allocation of public health resources and effective prevention and control of hepatitis E.
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Objective To understand the epidemiologic characteristics and spatial-temporal distribution of hepatitis E in Shanghai between 2006 and 2016.Methods The reported incidence of hepatitis E and health facilities' information between 2006 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The geographic information were from Shanghai Surveying and Mapping Institute.The map scale was 1 ∶ 750 000.Global and local autocorrelation,and spatial-temporal detection methods were applied to determine the spatial-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E.Software ArcGIS 10.1 was used to analyze global and local spatial auto correlation of hepatitis E spatial clusters.Software SaTScan 9.4.4 was used to conduct scan for exploring the areas of hepatitis E temporal spatial clusters.Results A total of 6 048 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Shanghai during 2006-2016.The average incidence was 2.14/100 000.Spatial auto correlation analysis indicated that there was significant spatial positive correlations and spatial-temporal clustering of hepatitis E in Shanghai,and the "high-high cluster" was mainly located in the downtown of the city.Conclusion Understanding the spatial-temporal clustering areas of hepatitis E cases in Shanghai from 2006 to 2016 is important to the reasonable allocation of public health resources and effective prevention and control of hepatitis E.
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Objective To explore the spatial-temporal characteristics and changing regularities of Schistosoma japonicum in-fections among human from 2004 to 2011. Methods The township level spatial databases of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2011 were established,and the related spatial analysis was performed by SPSS 17.0,ArcGIS 10.1 and SaTScan 7.03. Results The schistosome infection rate among human in Hunan Province sharply decreased from 3.0％in 2004 to 0.8％in 2011. However,the rate among residents in parts of some townships in 2011 was still hovering at a higher level (P90=2.12％),and the higher rate was distributed along the Oncomelania hupensis snail ridden areas outside embankment. The auto-correlation analysis showed that the global Moran's I for schistosome infection rate among human was 0.34 to 0.53 from 2004 to 2011,and was higher than the expected value(Z>8.71,P<0.05). The local G statistics indicated that the positive hotspot high-high clustering areas were mainly near the coast of Dongting Lake from 2004 to 2011,and the number of townships with schistosomiasis endemic in the clustering areas reached 30 to 70. The spatial scan analysis showed that the number of townships in the clustering areas ran up to 145 to 183 from 2004 to 2011. Conclusions The schistosome infection rate among human de-creased significantly in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2011. However,the rate in parts of some townships still remains at a com-paratively high level,and there are positive spatial correlation and spatial agglomerations in the schistosome infection rate among human,suggesting that the prevention and control work on schistosomiasis in these areas should be strengthened in the fu-ture.
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Researches on ichthyoplankton seems to be an important tool to identification of spawning areas and periods for freshwater fish. Ichthyoplankton was sampled monthly in the headwaters of the Cuiabá River, upper Paraguay River basin, (Mato Grosso State, Brazil), and in four of its tributaries, between November 2007 and March 2008, to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of fish eggs and larvae and the influence of regional and local variables on their distribution. In total, 22,067 eggs and 1,045 larvae were collected. A significant negative correlation was found between egg density and the variables of river level and flow volume. Larval density was not significantly correlated with any of the regional variables. The egg and larval densities were significantly higher at the sampling sites in the main river. The highest densities were found in environments with greater river widths, intermediate depths and lowest values of dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, and transparency. Anostomidae, Zungaro zungaro, Bryconamericus spp., Pimelodus spp., Pimelodidae, Auchenipteridae, and Siluriformes were the most abundant groups of larvae, and were observed at the sampling sites in the main river. The study site is an important spawning area for migratory and, non-migratory fish species, and highlight the importance of the main river to the reproductive event, by the influence of local variables transparency and river width, which in turn maybe temporally influenced by the river level.
O estudo do ictioplâncton tem se mostrado uma importante ferramenta na identificação de áreas e períodos de desova para as espécies de peixes de água doce.Amostragens de ictioplâncton foram realizadas mensalmente na região de cabeceira do rio Cuiabá, bacia do alto rio Paraguai, (Mato Grosso, Brasil) e em quatro de seus tributários, entre novembro de 2007 e março de 2008, com o objetivo de avaliar a distribuição espaço-temporal de ovos e larvas de peixes. Foram amostrados 22.067 ovos e 1.045 larvas. Identificou-se correlação significativa e negativa entre a densidade de ovos, o nível fluviométrico e a vazão. A densidade de larvas não apresentou correlação significativa com nenhuma das variáveis regionais. As densidades, tanto de ovos quanto de larvas, foram significativamente maiores nos pontos no rio principal. As maiores abundâncias foram observadas em ambientes com maiores valores de largura do rio, valores intermediários de profundidade e menores valores de O2 dissolvido, condutividade e transparência. Os grupos taxonômicos de larvas mais abundantes foram Anostomidae, Zungaro zungaro, Bryconamericus spp., Pimelodus spp., Pimelodidae, Auchenipteridae e Siluriformes, com maiores abundâncias observadas nos pontos no rio principal. Os resultados mostram que o local de estudo é uma importante área de desova para as espécies de peixes migradores e não-migradores, e destacamos a importância do rio principal para o evento reprodutivo, pela influência das variáveis locais, transparência e largura do rio, que por sua vez parecem ser influenciadas temporalmente pelo nível fluviométrico.
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Animals , Fresh Water/analysis , Ecosystem , Larviphage Fishes/classification , Reproduction/physiology , Plankton/classificationABSTRACT
Estudou-se a epidemiologia da raiva em cães e gatos, em Minas Gerais, e realizou-se um estudo descritivo de seu comportamento, de 2000 a 2006. Utilizaram-se, como fonte de dados, os relatórios mensais dos laboratórios do Centro de Controle de Zoonoses de Belo Horizonte e do Instituto Mineiro de Agropecuária. Os resultados demonstraram positividade de 1,5 por cento para raiva canina e 0,7 por cento para raiva felina. Houve tendência ao decréscimo do número de casos positivos de raiva canina (y = -3,2143x + 19,714) e também para a raiva felina, com apenas dois casos, ambos em 2000. As regiões com diagnóstico positivo coincidiram com as de menor desenvolvimento sócioeconômico.
In order to know the epidemiology of rabies in dogs and cats, in Minas Gerais State, a descriptive study of its behavior was carried out from 2000 to 2006. Data of monthly reports colleted at the laboratories of "Centro de Controle de Zoonoses (CCZ)" from Belo Horizonte" and "Instituto Mineiro de Agropecuária (IMA)" were used. Positivity of 1.50 percent for canine rabies and 0.70 percent for feline rabies were observed. A tendency to the decrease of canine rabies positive cases was found (y= -3.2143x + 19.714) and the same was observed for cats, since only two cases occurred, both in 2000. The regions that present positive diagnostics also showed the lowest social economic development.